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Sam Lessin on Technology Trends

Sam Lessin's takes on emerging technology trends, hardware, software, and the future of computing.

Essays

SWL Week in Review - Crushing Bot Rebellions

MORE OR LESS :: IS PUTTING DOWN LOWER IQ BOT REBELLIONS IS THE ULTIMATE LABS BUSINESS MODEL? (1) So it is pretty clear that most AI is gonna be open-source and cheap / low margin… what do you do with the 150 IQ frontier models? They aren’t gonna win on volume… and how much ‘premium tokens’ will fol...


SWL Week in Review - The Voice of America

MORE OR LESS — THE AMERICAN INTERNET We talk about how great America is… the need for a validated ‘American’ internet for civic discourse, Taylor and Travis, and Foiling… I spend a bunch of time discussing my 250th birthday gift to America… Vox Americanus — because I am pretty sick of waiting for m...


SWL Week in Review - Late Empire

MORE OR LESS POD Talking about smart glasses, the phone I dropped off a mountain (and how it is impossible to recover your phone number if you do ATT sim-swapping defense 2FA with… your phone (as their system works), The prediction markets / how to get women to participate in prediction markets, an...


SWL Week in Review - Anthrospace

More or Less Pod — AnthroSpace We talk SpaceX S1, and 1.25B a month from Anthropic… also a bit about Dellworld, Tokenomics (AI not Crypto Lol), Goolge IO’s announcements … and some legal updates…. Also if Elon can sell his data-center capacity like that… are we long just anyone acquiring GPUs for t...


SWL Week in Review - AI Is Not a Labor Crisis. It Is a Meaning Crisis.

AI Is Not a Labor Crisis. It Is a Meaning Crisis. "Civilizations are not mainly threatened by discomfort; they are threatened by superfluity" People are worried about all sorts of things when it comes to AI… killer robots / AGI deciding to dispose of humanity (on purpose or by accident), a modern ...


SWL Week in Review - Looksmaxxing

More or Less Pod - AI Security Apocalypse For a while we have been gabbing about how AI completely breaks the business model of the internet / will end the internet by destroying how it makes money (the medium is the message… which is the business model) — but with all these inevitable AI security...


SWL Week in Review - Bot or Not

More or Less : Ladies Edition Dave and I went skiing… so the ladies invited some other non-sam-dave people on the podcast. Henrik and Ben on something called ?“donkeycorns”? … will watch it on the flight home because airplane wifi is actually starting to work (and yes, I 100% will pay more and choo...


SWL Week in Review - Master of Bots

More or Less - GTC & Claws Dave and Jess go on and on about GTC … shocker I didn’t go, but if Jensen wants to stop by the poorhouse and sauna for 3 hours he is more than welcome! Dave and I get into a pretty interesting discussion IMHO on ‘is Openclaw an OS’… what does an OS even mean / what is the...


SWL Week in Review - A Commodity Without Monopoly Power

More or Less — Dark Pools and Commodified Intelligence There is no question that developer demand more tokens… but do consumers? For what really? Is there any real margin in generic martix multiplication or is the market for ‘intelligence’ just the cost of power … and brutal competition in a world ...


SWL Week in Review - Claude Week

More or Less - Cutting Block Why aren’t the Silicon Valley engineers freaking out at Claude? Lack of union (like Hollywood)… or is freaking out admitting you are scared you aren’t good enough to be in the minority of engineers who will make more money vs. getting axed?! Also more on the ‘triangle t...


SWL Week in Review - Roblox for Adults

More or Less - Capitalism at Work Collapsing Margins to Zero We discuss Stripe / PayPal (the only question is regulatory / do collisions want to be in front of congress for years once administrations change over)… and spend a lot on this big question of what happens when building software goes the ...


SWL Week in Review - No Typists Anymore...

More or Less — In Everyone a Developer or No One A Developer? A great conversation between ski runs … on the future of open networks vs. closed / monolithic AI companies… in the future is ‘everyone a developer’ … or are there no developers and everyone just builds things (just like everyone types)…...


SWL Week in Review - Chosen by the Claw.

More or Less - Twitter Was Elon’s Ultimate Vibe Buy & Holy SpaceX The world is moving so fast this big news feels already old… but we break down more Elon world… The ‘vibe buy’ of X (remember when he tried to back out) as a HUGELY positive move for shaping the narrative through the elites & degens ...


SWL Week in Review - half-kelly

More or Less — Have Secret or Own Narrative Jess is in Davos… we are left behind with the riffraff… fun conversation around Clawdbot, Ralph — mercenary AI ‘founders’ … I was personally interested in some of the conversation we got into re: how to support hardware businesses in a world where your 8-...


SWL Week in Review - clawdbot

More Or Less — Clawdbot & the Personal Security Apocalypse Clawdbot is incredible. It’s also the moment you should immediately realize: this is how it ends. Local permissions to your drive, screen, and windows are the cleanest on-ramp imaginable to a locked-down internet, hardened enclaves, an...


From the Podcast

Which has been like hilariously down constantly 'cause it can't keep up with all the bot traffic. Here's the funny thing to me about that. It's a great example. Like if you said, "Hey, I'm gonna launch a GitHub competitor," that used to be like a hard thing to do. Now, it's like three people like sitting somewhere in Elon's office or something or some office around. They're just like, "Yeah, like we're just gonna like..." I just think that just changes the world so dramatically when all this stuff, you're just like, "I don't care." There's no software lock-in, right? Like it, it can be distribution. It can be anything about... Like you... But you're like, "Oh, I'm like angry that GitHub is down." It doesn't matter. It's so easy to replace.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 163

I gotta actually start playing with these things again, 'cause I just like have gone down my own like crazy version of this, where I don't use any of the software. I feel like I should... If you guys think it's this good, I'll actually spend time going back to use some of the software.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 163

It's just, like, a marketing and, like, endpoint that got popular, and for instance, OpenClaus, et cetera, helped get popular, and that's useful. It's distribution in, like, a very technical zone. There's no technology that matters.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 163

One of my favorite companies ever is Constellation Software, right? It's a fucking beast.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 161

I mean, sure. Dave, but, uh, I think Dave was my second on the deal, but, like, we had Howie over, we loved the software, that we were literally, when we were building Fin, we were using Airtable. I was like, "This product's sick. We need to invest in it. Who's behind it?" Turned out it was Howie at Etax from back in the day. I knew him from his first startup. So we put 3 million bucks in at 90 post, which Dave did support me on. It was very rule-breaking for Slow at the time, 'cause it was too far along.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 161

It's the most competitive. Like, basically, the West Coast is where technology starts and moves east. All culture and, like, culture trends start i- east and move west.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 159

Uh, look, I think it goes a little bit back to the thing we've talked about many times on the pod, which is, like, look, is everyone a developer or no one a developer? Is everyone a platform partner or is no one a platform partner? Like, from my perspective, the problem is, like, I have all sorts of software running just for me on these stuff. I wouldn't consider myself a platform partner. Like, I wouldn't even consider myself a developer on them. I'm literally just, like, making the shit I want. And, like, it's really, really hard to see, like, what that ecosystem looks like because it really does mean that these developers are just consumers, right? And if they're just consumers, then, like, how do you deal with... Like, what are you gonna deal in everyone, then you just don't charge them? Like, what does that even mean?

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 157

Ironic since we own the land there, but, like, it's true. The big problem with Tahoe this year was one of the best parts of Fourth of July in Tahoe is the military hardware that comes out and buzzes the lake.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 157

I, I'm like un- I'm completely, I'm completely uninterested in hardware. I like my iPhone. I think it's fine. I like my Garmin watch. I could imagine putting a button on my Garmin watch with a microphone. That would be kinda useful.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 158

But it i- but the problem is, it's, like, kinda like being like, you're talking about the, the stuff as though any one company can control it or any one country can control it. You can acknowledge the fact that giving technical, enormous amounts of technical leverage on all sorts of things has, could be bad for biological weapons or, like, this is, like, the... You can do all sorts of bad stuff with technology. You can do all sorts of good stuff with technology. You can do all sorts of bad stuff with technology. That's what technology is. If we had a monopoly on technology in the US, that would be different. We obviously don't, right? And so in some ways, like, having a, like... It's like all this stuff about global warming and the environment, where, like, one country can take action, but it's completely irrelevant because we live in a connected globe. So it's a dumb thing to do, right? Like-

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 158

The fact that, like, the AI war thing will not be decided by, like, technology. It won't just happen naturally and occur naturally by the laws of economics, which gets you the best product at the cheapest price. People are making plays which are political, not business, right? If that makes sense.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 158

Yeah, exactly. So I, I don't know. I mean, like, I just... I don't know. My, my thing more is just, like, I'm just depressed about the entire thing. I have... I offer no advice. Like, I think, I think this has gone... Like, all of AI, these AI wars are, like, politics and not business or technology at this point, and, like, that's a bummer.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 158

I just think at the end of the day, like stopping people from moving software around the world, it's the same thing as stopping them from moving like books around the world. It's just con- it, it's like really weird, right? As a concept to like push on. And like, I'm just like-

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 158

... this thing called the right to be forgotten, which is one of the dumbest laws ever written. Because you're like, how the hell are you gonna enforce that? Like you can't, it's like it makes no sense, right? Like, like from an intellectual, it's not how the internet works. It's like, you know, people used to make T-shirts with encryption algo- encryption, we can go back further. In the early internet, there was this big argument about whether encryption technology was a weapon and whether it could be exported from the US legally or not. And then all these like hackers would like literally just put encryption algorithms on T-shirts and walk around, 'cause they're so simple. It's like you can't stop this from moving cross border, right? And so the basic point with all this stuff again is like it, it's one thing if you're just like, okay, like the Chinese models are bad and like we're gonna put up a trade embargo on like copying like Chinese mo- using Chinese models from China, but we're gonna do it in the US. Like that, none of that's how the internet works. Like that's not how-

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 158

I'm just looking at OpenAI's hardware. Oh, it's supply... What is SupplyCo with OpenAI? Is there, is this their thing?

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 158

Tweets

The SaaS Era is Over ; Software is a Business Tool not a Business Model https://t.co/cMi3PxRaub

September 27, 2024 · 3549 likes · link

Build Economies … Not Technology ... https://t.co/lCv8ImFB7Z

March 21, 2025 · 2166 likes · link

We need to stop calling financing all software startups ‘venture capital’ when it is just plain old ‘private equity’... https://t.co/FTMybu2xf3

June 14, 2021 · 941 likes · link

Never buy enterprise software except on the last day of the quarter...

September 30, 2022 · 921 likes · link

Is anyone else finding they are using less and less software over time? https://t.co/1x7LxopsSP

July 29, 2024 · 276 likes · link

i had one of these a decade ago called the narrative clip.... i get it intellectually, but it still isn't practically a thing anytime soon. beware the pivot to hardware... https://t.co/1dTVyfJbco

October 03, 2023 · 223 likes · link

’Founder Mode’ doesn’t exist in a vacuum… it is a modern tech driven phenomenon where you can drop ‘middle management’ — it wasn't historically viable (in fact, middle management WAS a technology last generation ago!) https://t.co/tpNPAKk7T3

September 02, 2024 · 206 likes · link

We are coming to the end of the road for west-cost 'software' oriented VC. The choice for firms is either to drop the 'venture' and compete with the onslaught of the mainline global financial system, or if they move on looking for what comes next https://t.co/TtxTHlrykx

August 04, 2021 · 185 likes · link

pop quiz - what has higher margins than hardware... supplements. https://t.co/j5YcYReU2Z

December 12, 2024 · 162 likes · link

@SebastianSzturo sadly that role no longer exists ... replaced by medical technology

September 08, 2024 · 107 likes · link

From a financial perspective, LLMs are "content" not "technology" & the companies making them are at best like hollywood studios (and should be valued accordingly) https://t.co/h82vbMxC1D

June 12, 2024 · 103 likes · link

The most valuable things in the world turn out to be either thousands of years old (commodities) or <50 years old (technology companies)... https://t.co/Mr3Eb8kpxA

April 10, 2021 · 69 likes · link

Master of Bots for Slow? I am interested in hiring a 'master of bots' to work on software and bot stack at slow / build internal (and maybe external apps, etc) with me. This isn't a for sure role, but I am for sure interested -- application below...

March 18, 2026 · 67 likes · link

If you want to consider the difference between software and services as businesses: Zoom is trading at 15b and Lyft is trading at 16b / basically the same market cap... lyft has 4x employees in corporate, 5x net revenue! #services_are_important_but_hard !

April 21, 2019 · 54 likes · link

I distinctly remember in 2007 when the iPhone came out having an argument with a bain colleague (who later became a hedge-fund muckety muck) about apple. He was a bull and bought a lot of stock, I thought the hardware would get commoditized fast... I guess I was $2T wrong :)

August 19, 2020 · 50 likes · link

When @kortina and I started the 'fin exploration company' in 2015 (predecessor to https://t.co/nma5oJtP6j) we wrote a 'charter' "to sail due west from port San Francisco with a small veteran crew seeking a shorter route to the end game of technology." ... fun historical document. https://t.co/8I15tE3Ilo

October 15, 2021 · 40 likes · link

Technology leads to transparency which leads to accountability ;). how cool is this!? https://t.co/IqIeQxQwdm

February 02, 2023 · 39 likes · link

@safwaankay check the history of software companies that try to build devices ... not pretty

October 03, 2023 · 37 likes · link

"Software might be eating the world, but you can’t eat software." -- good line from an investor update.

March 13, 2022 · 35 likes · link

Stripe bought OpenRouter for $7.5B this week and everyone just shrugged. That's 7x what Instagram sold for. The OG crew is back on More or Less and we got into it: — My take: there is NO technology in OpenRouter. It's a key swap with great marketing. Ramp announced a router.

August 21, 2026 · 35 likes · link