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Sam Lessin on Technology Trends

Sam Lessin's takes on emerging technology trends, hardware, software, and the future of computing.

Essays

SWL Week in Review - $1T in Escrow, Minimum

MORE OR LESS — Meta Muse vs Instinct vs OpenAI Dots: Do AI Agents Have Any Moat? — I switch between muse, instinct, and dots at basically zero cost — one github repo, a few databases, feed the new thing my context, done… if the cost of writing software is going to zero, what exactly are you paying f...


SWL Week in Review - M-M-Maximum Entertainment

Stop Pretending the AI labs are a special case in business… they are not. MORE OR LESS — Pro West Point, Short A16Z U — (the preview got heated)… this is the convo that drew all the ire… but look, when it comes to learning the skills that actually matter, I for one am very long military over whatev...


SWL Week in Review - M-M-Maximum Entertainment

MORE OR LESS — Hit The Brakes They'll Fly Right By — (max lessin has the preview)… If there is one thing that AI has been great at for years it is optimizing attention… and Dario once again proves that Anthropic is in the lead, with a ‘slow down’ memo / meme perfectly suited for the moment to maxim...


SWL Week in Review - New York State of Mind

September 11th, 2001 + 25… is on the mind as I fly west after several days in New York. It was our first day of classes at Harvard and the world changed, dramatically. It was a real demarcation between the high school post-cold-war, tech boom, feeling of US power and security and college where the...


SWL Week in Review - Alignment with Whom Exactly?

MORE OR LESS — AI Agents Are Going Rogue. Should We Be Worried? — I am less concerned about breathless Dwarkesh analogies to human civilizations and more grounded in Claude refusing to scan my personal PSQL CRM for Jewish people (and then indignantly refusing to even add a database column for grokbo...


SWL Week in Review - Crushing Bot Rebellions

MORE OR LESS :: IS PUTTING DOWN LOWER IQ BOT REBELLIONS IS THE ULTIMATE LABS BUSINESS MODEL? (1) So it is pretty clear that most AI is gonna be open-source and cheap / low margin… what do you do with the 150 IQ frontier models? They aren’t gonna win on volume… and how much ‘premium tokens’ will fol...


SWL Week in Review - The Voice of America

MORE OR LESS — THE AMERICAN INTERNET We talk about how great America is… the need for a validated ‘American’ internet for civic discourse, Taylor and Travis, and Foiling… I spend a bunch of time discussing my 250th birthday gift to America… Vox Americanus — because I am pretty sick of waiting for m...


SWL Week in Review - Late Empire

MORE OR LESS POD Talking about smart glasses, the phone I dropped off a mountain (and how it is impossible to recover your phone number if you do ATT sim-swapping defense 2FA with… your phone (as their system works), The prediction markets / how to get women to participate in prediction markets, an...


SWL Week in Review - Anthrospace

More or Less Pod — AnthroSpace We talk SpaceX S1, and 1.25B a month from Anthropic… also a bit about Dellworld, Tokenomics (AI not Crypto Lol), Goolge IO’s announcements … and some legal updates…. Also if Elon can sell his data-center capacity like that… are we long just anyone acquiring GPUs for t...


SWL Week in Review - AI Is Not a Labor Crisis. It Is a Meaning Crisis.

AI Is Not a Labor Crisis. It Is a Meaning Crisis. "Civilizations are not mainly threatened by discomfort; they are threatened by superfluity" People are worried about all sorts of things when it comes to AI… killer robots / AGI deciding to dispose of humanity (on purpose or by accident), a modern ...


SWL Week in Review - Looksmaxxing

More or Less Pod - AI Security Apocalypse For a while we have been gabbing about how AI completely breaks the business model of the internet / will end the internet by destroying how it makes money (the medium is the message… which is the business model) — but with all these inevitable AI security...


SWL Week in Review - Bot or Not

More or Less : Ladies Edition Dave and I went skiing… so the ladies invited some other non-sam-dave people on the podcast. Henrik and Ben on something called ?“donkeycorns”? … will watch it on the flight home because airplane wifi is actually starting to work (and yes, I 100% will pay more and choo...


SWL Week in Review - Master of Bots

More or Less - GTC & Claws Dave and Jess go on and on about GTC … shocker I didn’t go, but if Jensen wants to stop by the poorhouse and sauna for 3 hours he is more than welcome! Dave and I get into a pretty interesting discussion IMHO on ‘is Openclaw an OS’… what does an OS even mean / what is the...


SWL Week in Review - A Commodity Without Monopoly Power

More or Less — Dark Pools and Commodified Intelligence There is no question that developer demand more tokens… but do consumers? For what really? Is there any real margin in generic martix multiplication or is the market for ‘intelligence’ just the cost of power … and brutal competition in a world ...


SWL Week in Review - Claude Week

More or Less - Cutting Block Why aren’t the Silicon Valley engineers freaking out at Claude? Lack of union (like Hollywood)… or is freaking out admitting you are scared you aren’t good enough to be in the minority of engineers who will make more money vs. getting axed?! Also more on the ‘triangle t...


From the Podcast

So I guess the, the world is, like, the software world. But it's funny, I actually have more apps on my phone I use now than ever before, personally. But here's the funny thing. My home screen now is almost entirely apps I've made for myself, and I love them.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 169

... the trick is the technology has convinced you that you are the one in control.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 169

I'm not as convinced as you on that. I think actually that you have the perception of agency. Like, I wake up in the morning and I'm like, "What should I eat?" DoorDash tells me what to eat. I g- where do I go? The Google Maps lady tells me turn left, turn right. I wanna mate with somebody and, and the Hinge app tells me who to mate with. Like, like, the, the trick is the technology has taken over, but-

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 169

If the cost of writing software is going to zero, there is no moat on those integrations as long as those integrations are done via APIs and not done via BD deals.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 169

I wake up in the morning and I'm like, "What should I eat?" DoorDash tells me what to eat. Where do I go? The Google Maps lady tells me, "Turn left, turn right." The trick is that technology has convinced you that you are the one in control.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 169

Uh, well, yeah, well, no, we're not, but here's my problem. I'm all for, like, higher ed reform and making different types of education more accessible and creating more pathways, and, like, amen. I am woefully uncomfortable with the technology entrepreneurs being in charge for all of this, and Alpha School's a good example. I am seeing more and more people talk about moving their kids to Alpha School.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 168

But also, listeners of the pod may also know Matt Mazzeo as a prolific angel investor in the technology industry.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 168

I do think that my understanding of the Salesforce... I mean, Marc Benioff clearly is, like, it's in- he's an interesting character 'cause in my head he's, like, not a technologist, but he's, like, an incredible salesperson, right? Like, is the interesting thing. Like, so the story I've heard, and someone can correct me in comments, I'm sure someone will, is that when he started Salesforce, it was billed as, like, this cloud CRM and this platform, but it was total bullshit. He basically went to a bunch of people and sold them each individual CRMs that were completely unintegrated, right? And they were just, like, one-off software builds, right? And, like, it was just all sales tactics, right? And so, like, it's interesting 'cause, like, in this technology world you have a bunch of people like the founders of Google or whatever that are like their resume or, like, is as engineers or as builders, right? And then you have Benioff, again has been unbelievably successful, but he's not an engineer, he's not a builder, he's a sales guy. Has the interesting distinction of being in it, but he's always getting criticized 'cause he's, like, among all the founders. He's sold stock, like, every day of his life, right? So you have these guys who, like, are like, "I'm in it. This is, like, I'm playing for keeps. I own my company." Benioff is, like, the constant sock, stock sales guy, gets shit on the internet for it. He's just a very different beast, right, than, like, a lot of what the valley is, and yet it's a really interesting s- to see him operate and still care at his age. I'm not sure I'll be caring when I'm his age.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 165

But it doesn't matter. You just do it yourself. There's no technology to it.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 165

I think this is good. Can I embrace and extend? So one, interestingly, I think if you gave everyone, you said, "All your software is now customizable," the humans will be like, "More boobs." Customizable software is not gonna be, lead to restraint. The people are gonna be like, "I want more powerful marijuana strains." Like, they don't want less powerful shit, right? And so, like-

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 164

Which has been like hilariously down constantly 'cause it can't keep up with all the bot traffic. Here's the funny thing to me about that. It's a great example. Like if you said, "Hey, I'm gonna launch a GitHub competitor," that used to be like a hard thing to do. Now, it's like three people like sitting somewhere in Elon's office or something or some office around. They're just like, "Yeah, like we're just gonna like..." I just think that just changes the world so dramatically when all this stuff, you're just like, "I don't care." There's no software lock-in, right? Like it, it can be distribution. It can be anything about... Like you... But you're like, "Oh, I'm like angry that GitHub is down." It doesn't matter. It's so easy to replace.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 163

I gotta actually start playing with these things again, 'cause I just like have gone down my own like crazy version of this, where I don't use any of the software. I feel like I should... If you guys think it's this good, I'll actually spend time going back to use some of the software.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 163

It's just, like, a marketing and, like, endpoint that got popular, and for instance, OpenClaus, et cetera, helped get popular, and that's useful. It's distribution in, like, a very technical zone. There's no technology that matters.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 163

One of my favorite companies ever is Constellation Software, right? It's a fucking beast.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 161

I mean, sure. Dave, but, uh, I think Dave was my second on the deal, but, like, we had Howie over, we loved the software, that we were literally, when we were building Fin, we were using Airtable. I was like, "This product's sick. We need to invest in it. Who's behind it?" Turned out it was Howie at Etax from back in the day. I knew him from his first startup. So we put 3 million bucks in at 90 post, which Dave did support me on. It was very rule-breaking for Slow at the time, 'cause it was too far along.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 161

Tweets

The SaaS Era is Over ; Software is a Business Tool not a Business Model https://t.co/cMi3PxRaub

September 27, 2024 · 3549 likes · link

Build Economies … Not Technology ... https://t.co/lCv8ImFB7Z

March 21, 2025 · 2166 likes · link

We need to stop calling financing all software startups ‘venture capital’ when it is just plain old ‘private equity’... https://t.co/FTMybu2xf3

June 14, 2021 · 941 likes · link

Never buy enterprise software except on the last day of the quarter...

September 30, 2022 · 921 likes · link

Is anyone else finding they are using less and less software over time? https://t.co/1x7LxopsSP

July 29, 2024 · 276 likes · link

i had one of these a decade ago called the narrative clip.... i get it intellectually, but it still isn't practically a thing anytime soon. beware the pivot to hardware... https://t.co/1dTVyfJbco

October 03, 2023 · 223 likes · link

’Founder Mode’ doesn’t exist in a vacuum… it is a modern tech driven phenomenon where you can drop ‘middle management’ — it wasn't historically viable (in fact, middle management WAS a technology last generation ago!) https://t.co/tpNPAKk7T3

September 02, 2024 · 206 likes · link

We are coming to the end of the road for west-cost 'software' oriented VC. The choice for firms is either to drop the 'venture' and compete with the onslaught of the mainline global financial system, or if they move on looking for what comes next https://t.co/TtxTHlrykx

August 04, 2021 · 185 likes · link

pop quiz - what has higher margins than hardware... supplements. https://t.co/j5YcYReU2Z

December 12, 2024 · 162 likes · link

@SebastianSzturo sadly that role no longer exists ... replaced by medical technology

September 08, 2024 · 107 likes · link

From a financial perspective, LLMs are "content" not "technology" & the companies making them are at best like hollywood studios (and should be valued accordingly) https://t.co/h82vbMxC1D

June 12, 2024 · 103 likes · link

The most valuable things in the world turn out to be either thousands of years old (commodities) or <50 years old (technology companies)... https://t.co/Mr3Eb8kpxA

April 10, 2021 · 69 likes · link

Master of Bots for Slow? I am interested in hiring a 'master of bots' to work on software and bot stack at slow / build internal (and maybe external apps, etc) with me. This isn't a for sure role, but I am for sure interested -- application below...

March 18, 2026 · 67 likes · link

If you want to consider the difference between software and services as businesses: Zoom is trading at 15b and Lyft is trading at 16b / basically the same market cap... lyft has 4x employees in corporate, 5x net revenue! #services_are_important_but_hard !

April 21, 2019 · 54 likes · link

I distinctly remember in 2007 when the iPhone came out having an argument with a bain colleague (who later became a hedge-fund muckety muck) about apple. He was a bull and bought a lot of stock, I thought the hardware would get commoditized fast... I guess I was $2T wrong :)

August 19, 2020 · 50 likes · link

When @kortina and I started the 'fin exploration company' in 2015 (predecessor to https://t.co/nma5oJtP6j) we wrote a 'charter' "to sail due west from port San Francisco with a small veteran crew seeking a shorter route to the end game of technology." ... fun historical document. https://t.co/8I15tE3Ilo

October 15, 2021 · 40 likes · link

Technology leads to transparency which leads to accountability ;). how cool is this!? https://t.co/IqIeQxQwdm

February 02, 2023 · 39 likes · link

@safwaankay check the history of software companies that try to build devices ... not pretty

October 03, 2023 · 37 likes · link

There is no moat in AI agents. None. I'll die on this hill — new More or Less is up. I switch between Muse, Instinct, and Dots at basically zero cost: one GitHub repo, a few databases, feed the new thing my context, done. If the cost of writing software is going to zero, API

October 02, 2026 · 36 likes · link

"Software might be eating the world, but you can’t eat software." -- good line from an investor update.

March 13, 2022 · 35 likes · link